On October 7th, 2015, 40,889 fans packed into PNC Park to watch two of the top three teams in the National League face off in a one-game playoff series, with the winner advancing to play the 100-win St. Louis Cardinals. The Pirates started their 2011 first overall pick, Gerrit Cole, who, in his age 24 season, was already an All-Star and top pitcher in the league. The Cubs started Jake Arrieta, who would win the CY Young Award for the league’s top pitcher later that fall. Arrieta silenced the Pirate’s lineup that day, throwing nine shutout innings and leading the Cubs to a 4-0 win.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have yet to reach the playoffs since. The record crowds that the Pirates drew on that day have yet to be replicated. In 2015, the Pirates had their highest average game attendance at 30,847, and with ninety-eight wins, recorded their highest win total since the league’s integration. Their attendance has been on a consistent downward trend since the 2015 season. While Pirates fans may feel their falloff is unique, it is part of a trend across their division.

Within their division, the Cubs and Cardinals, who participated in the 2015 playoffs, are clearly in different positions than the Pirates regarding fan engagement and ability to spend. They are the two largest markets in the division, while the Pirates are the smallest. Despite this, both teams have been on a downward spiral since the late 2010s. The Cardinals missed the playoffs for three consecutive seasons after leading the NL in wins in 2015. Although they would reach the National League Championship Series (NLCS) in 2019, eventually falling to the Nationals (who would go on to win the World Series), the Cards have yet to pass the Wild Card Round since. The Cardinal’s struggles have caused their usually energetic fans to miss games this season. At a night game at Busch Stadium against the Padres, Padres commentator Mike Grant commented on the crowd, saying, “This is not the Busch Stadium I’m used to.” He continued by saying, "It is a different vibe here.”

After winning the World Series in 2016, the Cubs have also been struggling. After reaching the NLCS in 2017, the Cubs have not won a playoff series since. Although they made aggressive moves this offseason, like signing pitcher Shota Imananga from Japan, who recently contributed seven innings to a combined no-hitter against the Pirates, their record this season will not encourage them to continue spending money.

The Brewers could be considered the singular bright spot of the NL Central. Their attendance has remained stable, and they were the only NL Central team to qualify for the playoffs. The Brewers are likely in a better spot than they were in 2015. Despite this, they have not won a playoff series since 2018 and were recently eliminated from the 2024 Wild Card round.

The Cincinnati Reds are the only team in the division whose late 2010 peak occurred before 2015. They have the weakest results from the past decade in the division. Similar to the other four teams in the division their reported attendance peak also occurred from 2013-2015. Although their results have been poor, their lack of attendance and overall fan support is still a negative for fans of this division. The 2010 brawl between the Reds and Cardinals is vital to NL Central lore. That brawl occurred on a Tuesday night in Cincinnati, with 36,964 passionate fans in the stands. In 2024, the Reds are currently averaging 24,844 fans a game.

An important thing to note when discussing attendance numbers is that league-wide attendance has increased slightly following the Covid 2020 season and the change of pace rules introduced in the 2023 season. All five teams in the division have seen attendance increases over that period. This shows that the division is not in decline and that they are following the trends of the rest of baseball.

Attendance numbers, however, are not everything. The attendance numbers come from Baseball- Reference, which counts attendance based on ticket sales. Ticket sales do not reflect the number of fans in seats on game day.

It may make sense that all these teams are in decline simultaneously. The Cubs, who have the largest market size in the league, sacrificed their future for a World Series win in 2016. Besides Chigaco, the four other markets of the NL Central are all average to below media markets in MLB. Teams in large media markets generally have larger and more stable payrolls. The lack of large media markets in the NL Central could explain the inconsistent spending from the teams, but NL Central teams like the Pirates and Brewers have succeeded with smaller payrolls.

A better explanation is that none of the teams in the league are actively pushing each other to make the big moves needed to improve their teams. In other divisions, one team’s spending will encourage other teams in the division also to spend. It seems that NL Central teams are only focused on winning the NL Central and believe it doesn’t take much innovation or big moves to do so. As a Cardinals fan, I could complain about their failure to sign or develop strikeout pitchers. Pirates fans can complain about the front office’s failure to bolster their lineup with a high-profile free-agent signing. All the teams in this division have different flaws but never seem to address them. 

With the balanced schedules introduced in 2023, which reduced the number of inter-division games, the strategy of racking up wins against weak-division opponents will continue to yield mediocre results. This season, we are guaranteed to see only one NL Central team in the playoffs, as the Brewers will be the division’s only representative, having clinched first place last week. This will be the third season where the NL Central has only had one playoff participant, with the past two seasons being influenced by balanced schedules. The Brewer’s recent elimination in the wild-card round means that none of the four National League Division Series (NLDS) teams will be from the NL Central for the third consecutive season.

If the NL Central's decline is caused by shared complacency between the teams, then the revival of the NL Central will be caused by the young stars who eventually force their teams to be aggressive. The Brewers’ Jackson Chourio and the Pirates’ Paul Skenes are the top choices in the betting market to win Rookie of the Year. No other division has the wealth of young, marketable stars that the NL Central has. The successes of players like Masyn Winn, Elly De La Cruz, Paul Skenes, and Jackson Chourio will undoubtedly lead to increased media buzz around the division. If increased national attention is put on the National League’s Midwestern teams, these teams may be encouraged to build around their stars. With the recent playoff expansion, one can hope the 2015 NL Central will return.